A Tale of Five Bobs

A Tale of Five Bobs

2020/04/13

Take a journey with me. I call this The Tale of Five Bobs.

The Bobs are cautious but reasonable men. They are completely identical to each other in every way, but they happen to live in different universes. Let's call their homes Earth 1, Earth 2, Earth 3, and so on. Each version of Earth differs from the others in only one tiny way.

On each Earth, Bob finds himself in the midst of a global pandemic. Let's call the malaffliction Stella-teria. Bob, a cautious man, orders a package of necessary goods from a company called Nile. His delivery driver Jill is, unfortunately, an asymptomatic carrier for this disease. She has a very slight cough, but her allergies always act up this time of year. She coughs into his sleeve and sprays Stella-teria particles in a small area around her.

On Earth 1, and in a great proportion of nonclassified Earths, no Stella-teria particles land on the package. Bob does not contract Stella-teria.
On Earth 2, Stella-teria particles land on the package, but Bob doesn't touch that part of the package. Bob does not contract Stella-teria.
On Earth 3, Bob touches Stella-teria particles on the package, but washes his hands afterwards. Bob does not contract Stella-teria.
On Earth 4, Stella-teria particles enter Bob's body, but die before reaching a vulnerable cell. Bob does not contract Stella-teria.
On Earth 5, Bob contracts Stella-teria.

In this situation, Bob only had one point of exposure. As Stella-teria spreads throughout the population, a growing number of infected results in a growing number of exposure points. This is what causes that exponential curve we have heard so much about, and the sense that things are spiralling out of control. But there are things Bob and Jill can do to reduce the statistical likelihood of transmission. Things like: 1) Cough suppressants and masks worn by the afflicted or potentially inflicted. 2) Waiting to handle items that others have touched for the viability period of the disease. 3) Washing hands after touching new things. 4) Eating well, sleeping well, and exercising. 5) Reducing exposure points.

But the statistical truth is that sometimes, Bob can do everything right and be incredibly cautious and might still wind up catching Stella-teria. Some things are out of Bob's control, and Bob needs to learn to accept that, too.

No Bobs were harmed during the making of this thought experiment.